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Prediction | Points | Y/N? | Nate | Confidence | Luc | Confidence | Nate's Points | Luc's Points | Nate's Total Points | Luc's Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Does CPI ever go above 6.8%? | 3 | Y | N | 60.00% | Y | 60.00% | -0.6 | 0.6 | 8.05 | 5.4 |
Will we have another major financial crash akin to the Covid crash? | 4 | N | 70.00% | N | 80.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will a barrel of oil cost more on July 1, 2022, than $71.12 per barrel? | 2 | Y | 51.00% | N | 60.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will a barrel of oil cost more on December 31, 2022, than $71.12 per barrel? | 2 | Y | 60.00% | Y | 51.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will the Democrats retain control the Senate at the end of the 2022 election cycle? | 2 | N | 75.00% | N | 80.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will the Democrats decrease the number of seats they hold in the House of Representatives? | 1 | Y | 80.00% | Y | 80.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will Republicans take back control of the House? | 2 | N | 55.00% | Y | 65.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will Aarika Rhodes, a pro-bitcoin Democratic candidate for congress, unseat Brad Sherman, an anti-bitcoin Democrat representing California’s 30th congressional district? (That’s north of LA.) | 2 | N | 60.00% | N | 75.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will the Senate Democrats end the filibuster? | 4 | N | 90.00% | N | 100.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will Nate resume paying his student loans in 2022? | 5 | N | 95.00% | N | 92.50% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will any other republican other than Donald Trump announce they’re running for president? | 1 | N | 80.00% | Y | 55.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will any Republican women announce they’re running for president? | 1 | N | 95.00% | Y | 51.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will Evan Mcmullin unseat Mike Lee? | 1 | N | 75.00% | N | 60.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will Russia invade Ukraine? | 5 | Y | Y | 75.00% | Y | 65.00% | 2.5 | 1.5 | ||
Will China invade Taiwan? | 5 | N | 90.00% | N | 92.00% | |||||
Will the Evergrande crisis lead to significant economic contagion outside of China? | 2 | N | N | 70.00% | N | 75.00% | 0.8 | 1 | ||
Will any country see an armed insurgency over covid mandates? (More than what we are seeing in Australia and Germany which are more akin to the black lives matter riots than January 6th.) | 3 | N | 55.00% | N | 58.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will Luc get covid? | 3 | Y | Y | 87.50% | N | 85.00% | 2.25 | -2.1 | ||
Will Nate get Covid? | 3 | N | 51.00% | Y | 95.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will Nate go on his vacation at the end of February? | 3 | Y | Y | 60.00% | Y | 75.00% | 0.6 | 1.5 | ||
If Nate goes on his February vacation, will he get stuck somewhere or be unable to board the cruise? | 3 | N | N | 70.00% | N | 60.00% | 1.2 | 0.6 | ||
Will we see one of the 40 largest cities in the United State have overcapacity in hospitals as a result of the Omicron surge? | 4 | N | Y | 60.00% | N | 60.00% | -0.8 | 0.8 | ||
Will we have a new named variant? | 3 | Y | 55.00% | N | 55.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will we have an Omicron-specific vaccine by June 30th? | 3 | Y | 85.00% | Y | 75.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will a US non-blockchain/non-bitcoin publicly-traded company that has to date not added bitcoin to their treasury add it to their treasury in 2022? | 2 | Y | 90.00% | Y | 95.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will any of the FAANG companies add bitcoin to their treasury? | 3 | N | 90.00% | N | 67.30% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will either Apple or Amazon add bitcoin to their treasury? | 4 | N | 98.00% | N | 85.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
In the United States, will a publicly-traded chain restaurant (including fast food) start accepting bitcoin? | 3 | N | 90.00% | Y | 60.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will another country besides El Salvador purposely buy bitcoin to add to their reserves? | 3 | Y | 60.00% | Y | 70.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will another country besides El Salvador make Bitcoin legal tender? | 3 | Y | 60.00% | Y | 60.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will the SEC approve a bitcoin spot ETF? | 4 | N | 60.00% | N | 75.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will bitcoin reach $70,000? | 1 | Y | 98.00% | Y | 60.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will bitcoin reach $100,000? | 1 | Y | 90.00% | N | 60.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will bitcoin reach $250,000? | 1 | N | 60.00% | N | 75.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will bitcoin reach $500,000? | 1 | N | 90.00% | N | 95.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will bitcoin reach $1,000,000? | 1 | N | 95.00% | N | 99.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will SCOTUS overrule (or substantially overrule) Planned Parenthood v. Casey (the successor to Roe v. Wade)? | 5 | Y | 95.00% | Y | 90.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will SCOTUS overturn Biden’s executive order requiring companies with 100 or more employees to provide proof of vaccination or negative tests? | 3 | Y | Y | 85.00% | Y | 75.00% | 2.1 | 1.5 | ||
Will we have more than 150 listeners on average? | 5 | Y | 90.00% | Y | 95.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will have more than 1,000 listeners on average? | 5 | Y | 51.00% | Y | 50.50% | 0 | 0 | |||
Will we still have more female listeners than male listeners? | 1 | Y | 80.00% | Y | 60.00% | 0 | 0 | |||
What will be the main subject of our most popular podcast? Luc: Prediction deep dive 55% Nate: Bitcoin 51% | 1 | 0 | 0 |
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