Why I’d Rather Be Right and What This Publication Is About

Getting to right starts with being willing to be wrong.

Back in 2020, a friend and I started a short-lived podcast. We talked about a lot of things but mostly about Bitcoin. A few things from that period now feel directly relevant to this publication.

First, it took us a while to determine what the name of the podcast would be. In one of our first episodes, I said to my cohost, “You know that saying, ‘You can be happy, or you can be right’?” He responded, “Yes, of course.” Then I admitted, “Well, I’d rather be right.” He laughed and agreed. And that’s how we came up with the name of the podcast.

At the time, we discussed the name. Of course there is some arrogance in the name but also some humility. It didn’t claim we were right, only that we wanted to be right. We discussed how getting to right starts with being wrong, often way wrong. Part of our goal, both personally and with the podcast that didn’t work out, was to learn quickly and get closer to right.

That’s my goal with this publication. To help myself, and hopefully you, dear reader, get closer to right. Faster.

The second thing that happened during Covid was I went all-in on bitcoin. I owned some since the 2017 bull market and never sold it. At the time, I owned mostly bitcoin but some altcoins (i.e., shitcoins) but by 2019 I had learned enough to become convinced that Bitcoin was the only one that mattered. So at that time, I sold all my altcoins and used the proceeds to buy bitcoin. Then Covid happened, and I watched the government respond to a pandemic with enormous monetary and fiscal expansion, with far too little apparent concern for the long-term consequences. That’s when I decided to go all in on bitcoin because I understood it was built as a technological solution to the human problem that all governments will inevitably print money. I then spent all of 2020 allocating as much of my money as possible to bitcoin while learning everything I could about it.

I wasn’t the only one. Michael Saylor, who is far, far, far wealthier than I, was going through a similar experience. On August 11, 2020, Strategy ($MSTR), then MicroStrategy, announced they made their first bitcoin purchase. With that, Strategy became the first publicly traded company to adopt bitcoin as a primary treasury reserve asset. I made my first purchase of MSTR on September 18, 2020. Since then, I’ve been learning right along Michael Saylor, and often from Michael Saylor. As I learned more both about him and from him, I came to believe something I expect to argue often in this publication: Michael Saylor is the greatest living capital allocator.

My hope is this publication helps me learn from writing, and helps readers learn from reading. If I’ve done my job well, you too will also come to appreciate Bitcoin, bitcoin treasury companies, the different offerings of bitcoin treasury companies, and their proper place in different people’s portfolios. And just maybe you’ll also come to agree with me that Michael Saylor is the greatest living capital allocator.

That means I’ll write about Bitcoin, Strategy/MSTR, bitcoin treasury companies, their preferred offerings, capital structure, portfolio construction, valuation, incentives, risk, and the lessons of great capital allocators.

Sometimes that will mean writing about my own concentrated portfolio. Sometimes it will mean writing about very different portfolios, including portfolios for people who need more income, liquidity, and diversification. The point is not that every investor should express the bitcoin thesis the same way. The point is to think clearly about what is right for whom, at what price, and under what conditions.

Welcome. Let’s get closer to right.